Afraid of flying?

Each domestic US flight cuts my life expectancy by about 13 minutes.
Each hour I spend driving on a US interstate freeway cuts my life expectancy by 19 minutes.
Each hour I spend driving in US local city traffic cuts my life expectancy by 8 minutes.
Each hour I spend riding a motorbike in the US cuts my life expectancy by 5 hours!

You'll find my calculations below.

How will I die?

Causes of 1000 typical US deaths:

Cardiovascular diseases	516
Cancer	206
Strokes	98
Pneumonia	28
Other medical causes	31
Accidents, total	55
Suicides	14
Homocides	11
Total	1000

Breakdown for accidents:

Motor vehicles	26
Falls	7
Drowning	4
Fires, burns	3
Ingest. of food, object	2
Poison (solid, liquid)	2
Poison (gas)	1
Firearms	1
Other accidents	9
Total	55

Highlights:

About one person in 70 commits suicide (30 000 a year in the US)
One man in 45 will commit suicide, but only one woman in 144.
Although 76% of all suicides are male, women try more often.
About one person in 90 will get murdered.
About one man in 13 will die in an accident, but only one woman in 30.
37% of those killed in motor vehicle accidents are between ages 15 and 24
70% of those who die in accidents are male and 84% of those who drown are male - the testosterone factor?

Source: US Department of Health and Human Services. Statistics are for 1979. Compiled by Max Tegmark 02/11 1991.

Life expectancy calculations:

When deciding to take a risk (fly, drive, travel to the Middle East, etc), I ask myself whether the corresponding reduction of my life expectancy is worth it.

Each domestic US flight cuts my life expectancy by only 13 minutes. Calculation: according to the 2004 US air traffic report, domestic US flights transport about 512 million passengers per year. If they typically kill 250 people (probably an overestimate; 7-year average is 170, 2001 was 531, 2002 was 92), that gives me a one in 2 million chance of dying per flight. My remaining life expectancy is about 50 years, so a flight cuts it by a rather negligible 50*365*24*60/2000000 ~ 13 minutes.
Each hour I spend driving on a US interstate freeway cuts my life expectancy by 19 minutes. Calculation: for this number and the two following ones, I used the tables in chapter 2 of the 2002 national transportation statistics report, using the fatality rates per 100 million passenger-miles and assuming a mean speed of 60 mph on freeways and 25 mph in city traffic.
Each hour I spend driving in US local city traffic cuts my life expectancy by 8 minutes.
Each hour I spend riding a motorbike in the US cuts my life expectancy by 5 hours!

This page is maintained by Max Tegmark , max@physics.upenn.edu,

Return to my home page